Prediction markets you can actually use
A prediction market lets you buy and sell contracts on whether something will happen: an election result, an interest-rate decision, a final score. The price is the market's estimate of the probability.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest, and neither is open everywhere. Some online casinos now run prediction markets of their own. This page lists the ones we have verified and shows where the big platforms stand in each country, with the source for every status.
Frankly lists 4 casinos with a live prediction-markets product, each confirmed on the casino's own site. The highest-scoring is Woo Casino at 6.8/10. Whether Polymarket or Kalshi is open to you depends on your country; the checker below gives each status with its source.
Casinos with prediction markets
Ranked by trust score. Country acceptance differs by casino; pick your country in the checker to see which of these take players from it. No operator pays for placement.
Is Polymarket or Kalshi available in your country?
Every status links to the regulator's or the platform's own page and shows the day we last read it.
| Platform | Country | Status | What the source says | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket · Canada | Canada | Restricted | Polymarket restricts four provinces: Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec. It lists no restriction for the rest of Canada. Source: Polymarket geographic restrictions | Checked |
| Polymarket · CanadaOntario, British Columbia, Alberta, Quebec | Canada | Close-only | Residents can close existing positions but cannot open new ones, on the website and the API. Source: Polymarket geographic restrictions | Checked |
| Kalshi · Canada | Canada | Blocked | Kalshi lists Canada as a restricted jurisdiction. People living or located there are prohibited from trading event contracts. Source: Kalshi Member Agreement | Checked |
| Polymarket · Australia | Australia | Blocked | ACMA found Polymarket an unlicensed gambling service and asked ISPs to block it. Polymarket itself lists Australia as close-only. Source: ACMA investigations | Checked |
| Kalshi · Australia | Australia | Blocked | Kalshi lists Australia as a restricted jurisdiction. People living or located there are prohibited from trading event contracts. Source: Kalshi Member Agreement | Checked |
| Polymarket · New Zealand | New Zealand | Close-only | Polymarket lists New Zealand as close-only: existing positions can be closed, new ones cannot be opened. Source: Polymarket geographic restrictions | Checked |
| Kalshi · New Zealand | New Zealand | Blocked | Kalshi lists New Zealand as a restricted jurisdiction where trading event contracts is prohibited. Source: Kalshi Member Agreement | Checked |
| Polymarket · United Kingdom | United Kingdom | Close-only | Polymarket lists the United Kingdom as close-only: existing positions can be closed, new ones cannot be opened. Source: Polymarket geographic restrictions | Checked |
| Kalshi · United Kingdom | United Kingdom | Blocked | Kalshi lists the United Kingdom as a restricted jurisdiction where trading event contracts is prohibited. Source: Kalshi Member Agreement | Checked |
| Polymarket · United States | United States | Restricted | Trading is blocked on polymarket.com. The CFTC designated QCX LLC, now trading as Polymarket US, as a contract market in July 2025. Source: CFTC order of designation | Checked |
| Kalshi · United States | United States | Available | The CFTC designated KalshiEX LLC as a contract market in November 2020. Source: CFTC release 8302-20 | Checked |
Country detail: Polymarket and Kalshi in Canada · Polymarket and Kalshi in Australia
Polymarket alternatives
If Polymarket is not open where you live, the alternatives fall into four types. They differ in who sets the price, who takes the other side of your trade, and who oversees the operator.
| Type | How it works | Who you trade against | Oversight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange-style platforms (Polymarket, Kalshi) | Yes and No contracts priced between 0 and 1, traded on an order book until the event settles. | Other traders. The platform matches orders and charges fees. | Varies by platform and country. See the checker above for each status and its source. |
| Casino prediction markets | A predictions section inside a casino or its sportsbook, with markets on politics, finance, sport and culture. | Depends on the product. Some casinos price the markets themselves, as a bookmaker does. | The casino's gambling licence. Each casino's licence and trust score are on its Frankly review. |
| Betting exchanges | Back or lay an outcome at odds set by other users. Politics and current-affairs markets sit alongside sport. | Other users. The exchange takes commission on net winnings. | Licensed as gambling operators in the countries they serve, and closed to many others. |
| Sportsbook novelty and politics markets | Fixed odds on elections, awards and other non-sport events, offered by a bookmaker. | The bookmaker, who builds a margin into the odds. | The bookmaker's gambling licence. Some countries restrict which non-sport events can be offered. |
Prediction markets vs sports betting
A sportsbook sets odds and takes the other side of your bet, with a margin built in. On an exchange-style prediction market the price comes from traders, you can sell your position before the event settles, and the operator earns fees rather than a margin.
The markets also differ. Sportsbooks centre on sport. Prediction markets cover elections, economic data, company events and culture, and often list sport as well.
A casino prediction product can work either way, so read how a market is priced and settled before you trade it. The settlement rules decide who is paid when an outcome is disputed.
A contract price is an implied probability. Convert it to odds with the odds converter, or read how prediction markets arrived at crypto casinos.
Frequently asked questions
A market where you trade contracts on the outcome of a future event. A contract pays a fixed amount if the event happens and nothing if it does not, so a price of 0.40 means the market puts the chance at about 40%.
It depends on the country. Some regulators treat event contracts as financial derivatives, others as gambling, and the same platform can be licensed in one country and blocked in another. The checker on this page gives the status for each country with the regulator's or platform's own page as the source.
Not necessarily. Casino prediction products come from different suppliers and some are priced by the casino itself rather than by an order book of traders. We verify that the product is live on each casino's site; we do not publish a claim about who supplies it unless the casino states it.
A casino appears only after we have confirmed a live prediction-markets section on its own site and recorded the page as a receipt. Ranking is by Frankly trust score, which comes from a published formula. No operator pays for placement.
As a probability. A Yes contract at 0.62 implies a 62% chance. To compare it with sportsbook odds, divide 1 by the price: 0.62 is decimal odds of about 1.61. The Frankly odds converter does this in both directions.
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